How to build a Sports Betting Model The most common question I get asked from followers (and even friends) is 'how do you make a sports betting model?' This question isn't easy to answer, because the starting point for each individual varies. Some need to learn statistics first and others just need a few pointers. That said, I'm going to give a high-level overview of where I believe you should. This allows for predictive models based on linear regression. Even with this persistence, the models still predict regression for outlier performances, both good and poor. The 9-0 stretch for USC to end 2016 serves as an example. However, regression models can not predict teams that jump from ordinary to the outlier, like Georgia in 2017.
Casino Operator Model Key To Mobile Sports Betting Success
Gov. Andrew Cuomo of New York is ready to bring mobile sports betting to the Empire State. Cuomo's longtime stance against online wagering has stood as perhaps the biggest roadblock in the way of a mobile sports betting launch in New York.
Cuomo's about-face on mobile sports betting could open the doors for New York to become the biggest sports betting market in the US. That title currently belongs to neighboring New Jersey, which brought in more than $300 million in online sports betting revenue in 2020.
Under Cuomo's proposed sports betting regulations, however, the New York Lottery would function as the state's lone online sports betting operator. This model, currently used in Washington DC, Oregon, Montana, and other markets, could significantly hamper the potential of New York's mobile sports betting industry.
States using the lottery sports betting model experience a significant revenue gap when compared to states with casino-operated online sportsbooks. All of the top mobile sports betting markets in the US allow multiple operators, backed by license partnerships with established casino brands.
Sports Betting Model In R
Limitations Of The Lottery Monopoly Sports Betting Plan
If Cuomo moves forward with the lottery model for online sports betting, the New York market would operate similarly to Washington DC, Montana, New Hampshire, and Oregon. Each of those states offers a single online sports betting platform, regulated by the state lottery.
Washington DC is home to the Gambet DC mobile sports betting app, as well as a single retail sportsbook operated by William Hill at Capital One Arena.
Despite the limitations of a land-based sportsbook, the William Hill venue produced $13.7 million in betting handle in November. Gambet DC, available from anywhere in Washington DC, took in just under $3.9 million in wagers for November.
Oregon's online sports betting industry is powered by the Oregon Lottery's Scoreboard app. Oregon produced just over $25 million in November handle, using the same one-operator system proposed by Cuomo for New York.
New Hampshire emerged as the most successful state using the lottery model in 2020. The New Hampshire Lottery licenses DraftKings Sportsbook as the state's solo mobile sports betting operator.
Building A Sports Betting Model
New Hampshire took $46.5 million in handle for November, bolstered by the DraftKings brand. The New Hampshire model sees 51% of gross gaming revenue go to the New Hampshire Lottery.
Casino Operator Model Drives Sports Betting Boom
All of the top six online sports betting states in the US operate with multiple brands competing for market share. All six (New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Illinois, Indiana, Colorado) allow for land-based casinos to offer mobile sports betting.
Retail casinos can bring on license partners for their mobile sports betting offerings. This model sees brands like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, PointsBet, and BetMGM thriving under licensing agreements with established land-based casinos.
New Jersey tops the list as the biggest mobile sports betting market in the US. The Garden State pulled in $872 in online betting handle in November, with a portion of that figure certainly coming from New York bettors that make the quick trip to New Jersey to place bets.
Pennsylvania's online sportsbooks generated $447.4 million in handle for November. Illinois' latest figures, from October, saw the state's surging sports betting industry take $409.5 million in mobile wagers.
The performance from states using the casino operator sports betting model dwarfs the states that allow a single lottery-operated app to own a monopoly in the state.
New Jersey topped the list of US states in overall betting handle in each of the first 11 months of 2020. When the final December figures come in, they'll likely show a clean sweep across the entire year for New Jersey's powerful sports wagering market. Wsop attendance history. Bally hot shot.
Recent months show more than 90 percent of wagers coming from mobile in New Jersey. That same trend persists in Pennsylvania and Illinois as well.
All three of those states use the casino operator sports betting model, with online sportsbooks falling under the oversight of gaming regulation agencies in those states. This model invites names like DraftKings and FanDuel into the market, along with the marketing machines behind those brands.
Gov. Cuomo's proposed lottery operator model could significantly limit the New York mobile sports betting market from reaching its full potential. The Empire State seems like a prime spot for online wagering to flourish if different sports betting brands are allowed to compete for market share.
Looking for a long-term sports betting strategy that works? There's only one thing that really matters: price. Read on as we explain exactly why.
Why does price matter?
Ever wondered why most sports bettors end up losing in the long-run? It is because of something that is always overlooked, the price. Price is key to any successful sports betting strategy. In fact, it is far more important than the questions losing sports bettors often look to answer.
‘Who is going to win the game?' ‘Who is going to score first?' ‘What is the score going to be?'
The only question you need to ask yourself in order to become a long-term successful sports bettor is ‘which outcome is currently overpriced?'
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds simply represent the implied probability of that outcome coming true. It is important to know how to convert them, so we can identify which outcomes are overpriced. To work out the implied probability, we need to divide 100 by the decimal odds.
For example, a bet at 6/4 is 2.50 in decimal odds (6 divided by 4, plus 1)
100/2.50 = 40%
So, a bet at 6/4 is expected to win 40% of the time.
How do you spot a value bet?
Now we know how to work out the implied probability of the bookmaker's prices, we can compare with our own figures to find the overpriced outcome.
Let's say Chelsea are at home to Arsenal at the weekend, and one bookmaker is offering 2.50 on a Chelsea victory, implying a 40% chance of winning.
We disagree, believing Chelsea have a greater than 40% chance. In other words, Chelsea are overpriced by the bookmaker, and we should back the 2.50.
Making profit in the long-run
If your sports betting strategy involves consistently backing outcomes which are overpriced, you will make money in the long-run. Let's explain in simple terms using the above example.
If we are betting on Chelsea to win at 2.50, and we believe the true probability is 50% or 2.0, then over 10 bets the following will happen to £1 stakes:
5 x Chelsea win
We win £1 x 2.50 each time, which is £1.50 profit. So, 5 x £1.50 = £7.50
5 x Chelsea do not win
We lose 5 x £1 = £5
After 10 bets, we have won £7.50 – £5 = £2.50
Getting the best price
So as you can see, always ensuring you get the best price is fundamental to any winning sports betting strategy. Backing Chelsea to win at 2.25 would still be a good bet for example, but it would be crazy to do so if you could get 2.50 elsewhere. Taking 2.25 rather than 2.5 would mean you reduce your profits by 50% over the 10 bets.
Many sports bettors make it so much harder for themselves to be profitable, taking shorting prices just because they like the site, or because they have some cash in that account. The same people would use price comparison sites to get the best deal on their car insurance, or spend hours online looking for the cheapest price on a new sofa. But when it comes to sports betting, they do not take advantage of the choice on offer.
How can BetConnect help?
Price is the key. By consistently identifying overpriced outcomes, coupled with obtaining the best price possible, you'll be moving across into that small percentage of successful sports bettors in no time.
Under Cuomo's proposed sports betting regulations, however, the New York Lottery would function as the state's lone online sports betting operator. This model, currently used in Washington DC, Oregon, Montana, and other markets, could significantly hamper the potential of New York's mobile sports betting industry.
States using the lottery sports betting model experience a significant revenue gap when compared to states with casino-operated online sportsbooks. All of the top mobile sports betting markets in the US allow multiple operators, backed by license partnerships with established casino brands.
Sports Betting Model In R
Limitations Of The Lottery Monopoly Sports Betting Plan
If Cuomo moves forward with the lottery model for online sports betting, the New York market would operate similarly to Washington DC, Montana, New Hampshire, and Oregon. Each of those states offers a single online sports betting platform, regulated by the state lottery.
Washington DC is home to the Gambet DC mobile sports betting app, as well as a single retail sportsbook operated by William Hill at Capital One Arena.
Despite the limitations of a land-based sportsbook, the William Hill venue produced $13.7 million in betting handle in November. Gambet DC, available from anywhere in Washington DC, took in just under $3.9 million in wagers for November.
Oregon's online sports betting industry is powered by the Oregon Lottery's Scoreboard app. Oregon produced just over $25 million in November handle, using the same one-operator system proposed by Cuomo for New York.
New Hampshire emerged as the most successful state using the lottery model in 2020. The New Hampshire Lottery licenses DraftKings Sportsbook as the state's solo mobile sports betting operator.
Building A Sports Betting Model
New Hampshire took $46.5 million in handle for November, bolstered by the DraftKings brand. The New Hampshire model sees 51% of gross gaming revenue go to the New Hampshire Lottery.
Casino Operator Model Drives Sports Betting Boom
All of the top six online sports betting states in the US operate with multiple brands competing for market share. All six (New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Illinois, Indiana, Colorado) allow for land-based casinos to offer mobile sports betting.
Retail casinos can bring on license partners for their mobile sports betting offerings. This model sees brands like DraftKings, FanDuel, BetRivers, PointsBet, and BetMGM thriving under licensing agreements with established land-based casinos.
New Jersey tops the list as the biggest mobile sports betting market in the US. The Garden State pulled in $872 in online betting handle in November, with a portion of that figure certainly coming from New York bettors that make the quick trip to New Jersey to place bets.
Pennsylvania's online sportsbooks generated $447.4 million in handle for November. Illinois' latest figures, from October, saw the state's surging sports betting industry take $409.5 million in mobile wagers.
The performance from states using the casino operator sports betting model dwarfs the states that allow a single lottery-operated app to own a monopoly in the state.
New Jersey topped the list of US states in overall betting handle in each of the first 11 months of 2020. When the final December figures come in, they'll likely show a clean sweep across the entire year for New Jersey's powerful sports wagering market. Wsop attendance history. Bally hot shot.
Recent months show more than 90 percent of wagers coming from mobile in New Jersey. That same trend persists in Pennsylvania and Illinois as well.
All three of those states use the casino operator sports betting model, with online sportsbooks falling under the oversight of gaming regulation agencies in those states. This model invites names like DraftKings and FanDuel into the market, along with the marketing machines behind those brands.
Gov. Cuomo's proposed lottery operator model could significantly limit the New York mobile sports betting market from reaching its full potential. The Empire State seems like a prime spot for online wagering to flourish if different sports betting brands are allowed to compete for market share.
Looking for a long-term sports betting strategy that works? There's only one thing that really matters: price. Read on as we explain exactly why.
Why does price matter?
Ever wondered why most sports bettors end up losing in the long-run? It is because of something that is always overlooked, the price. Price is key to any successful sports betting strategy. In fact, it is far more important than the questions losing sports bettors often look to answer.
‘Who is going to win the game?' ‘Who is going to score first?' ‘What is the score going to be?'
The only question you need to ask yourself in order to become a long-term successful sports bettor is ‘which outcome is currently overpriced?'
How do betting odds work?
Betting odds simply represent the implied probability of that outcome coming true. It is important to know how to convert them, so we can identify which outcomes are overpriced. To work out the implied probability, we need to divide 100 by the decimal odds.
For example, a bet at 6/4 is 2.50 in decimal odds (6 divided by 4, plus 1)
100/2.50 = 40%
So, a bet at 6/4 is expected to win 40% of the time.
How do you spot a value bet?
Now we know how to work out the implied probability of the bookmaker's prices, we can compare with our own figures to find the overpriced outcome.
Let's say Chelsea are at home to Arsenal at the weekend, and one bookmaker is offering 2.50 on a Chelsea victory, implying a 40% chance of winning.
We disagree, believing Chelsea have a greater than 40% chance. In other words, Chelsea are overpriced by the bookmaker, and we should back the 2.50.
Making profit in the long-run
If your sports betting strategy involves consistently backing outcomes which are overpriced, you will make money in the long-run. Let's explain in simple terms using the above example.
If we are betting on Chelsea to win at 2.50, and we believe the true probability is 50% or 2.0, then over 10 bets the following will happen to £1 stakes:
5 x Chelsea win
We win £1 x 2.50 each time, which is £1.50 profit. So, 5 x £1.50 = £7.50
5 x Chelsea do not win
We lose 5 x £1 = £5
After 10 bets, we have won £7.50 – £5 = £2.50
Getting the best price
So as you can see, always ensuring you get the best price is fundamental to any winning sports betting strategy. Backing Chelsea to win at 2.25 would still be a good bet for example, but it would be crazy to do so if you could get 2.50 elsewhere. Taking 2.25 rather than 2.5 would mean you reduce your profits by 50% over the 10 bets.
Many sports bettors make it so much harder for themselves to be profitable, taking shorting prices just because they like the site, or because they have some cash in that account. The same people would use price comparison sites to get the best deal on their car insurance, or spend hours online looking for the cheapest price on a new sofa. But when it comes to sports betting, they do not take advantage of the choice on offer.
How can BetConnect help?
Price is the key. By consistently identifying overpriced outcomes, coupled with obtaining the best price possible, you'll be moving across into that small percentage of successful sports bettors in no time.
Fortunately, BetConnect gives you direct access to live bookmaker prices with the option of also setting custom odds. You can view the best prices from one account quickly and conveniently, giving you best chance of developing a winning sports betting strategy and boosting those profits!
Sound good? Sign up with BetConnect today. Alternatively, you can find more information here.
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